New PROTECT publication on sea level change in Europe

A new paper entitled “Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections” published in State of the Planet (SP) provides an overview of sea-level change in European seas. The paper is a contribution to the European Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Change Assessment Report. 

While the IPCC assessment reports provide valuable information on a global scale, this paper zooms in on Europe, synthesizing the state of the knowledge on observations and models of sea-level change in Europe. The large variations across the European coasts show the complexity of the topic and highlight the need for local information to be included to make better projections of future sea-level change. 

Some highlights emerging from the analysis are:

• In Europe, satellite altimetry observations show that geocentric sea level trends are currently on average slightly above the global mean rate, with only a few areas showing no change or a slight decrease such as central parts of the Mediterranean Sea. 
• Vertical land motions due to human-induced subsidence and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) are important for many coastal European regions. Land uplift due to GIA leads to below-average or even negative projected relative sea-level change in the Baltic Sea, while land subsidence leads to larger sea-level rise for subsiding coastlines.
• Relative sea-level change along other European coasts is projected to be slightly above the global mean, for instance the Atlantic coasts of Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. 
• The frequency of historical 1-in-100 year events is projected to increase for most European coasts, except along the northern Baltic Sea coasts because of relative sea level fall induced by GIA. 

Reference: Melet, A., van de Wal, R., Amores, A., Arns, A., Chaigneau, A. A., Dinu, I., Haigh, I. D., Hermans, T. H. J., Lionello, P., Marcos, M., Meier, H. E. M., Meyssignac, B., Palmer, M. D., Reese, R., Simpson, M. J. R., and Slangen, A. B. A. Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections. State of the Planet (2024). https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024