New PROTECT publication

Numerical models simulating the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet have mostly focused on the twenty-first century. How the ice sheet will evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain, as several instability mechanisms could develop and destabilize vast regions of Antarctica. The article “Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble” investigates the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet until 2300 using an ensemble of 16 different ice flow models.

The results show that the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise remains limited until 2100 but increases rapidly afterward. The ice retreats in most basins of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and some numerical experiments suggest a near-complete collapse of this region by 2300. The time when these glaciers start retreating varies depending on the choice of ice flow model, but the speed at which they retreat is consistent among the models once the retreat begins. On a multi-century timescale, the choice of ice sheet model remains a leading source of uncertainties.

Sources of uncertainty in experiments with high emission scenario forcings during 2015–2300. (a) Uncertainty from the climate model, ice model, inclusion of ice shelf collapse, and interactions between two or more components; the black line shows the total uncertainty. (b) Relative variance of the sources of uncertainty as a proportion of the total variance. The ensemble contains the main submissions from groups that conducted both experiments without (expAE02–expAE05) and with (expAE11–expAE14) ice shelf collapse.

Reference: Seroussi, H.,  Pelle, T.,  Lipscomb, W. H.,  Abe-Ouchi, A.,  Albrecht, T.,  Alvarez-Solas, J., et al. Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble. Earth’s Future (2024). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561

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