A new study has developed an innovative framework to improve coastal infrastructure planning in the face of uncertain sea level rise projections. Researchers have designed an economic adaptive decision-making model that takes future learning about sea level rise uncertainty into account, offering a promising approach to long-term adaptation for cities like Lübeck, Germany.
Lübeck, a coastal city vulnerable to rising sea levels and storm surges, served as the study’s case example. The results highlight that Lübeck is currently under-prepared for future sea level rise, and immediate protective actions are recommended. What sets this study apart is its emphasis on “adaptive adaptation pathways”—a dynamic approach that adjusts protective strategies over time based on new scientific data and observations of sea level rise.
The model, validated against the latest scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), uses a Markov decision process to address uncertainties. It generates flexible adaptation thresholds that can be applied across various climate scenarios. Notably, these adaptive strategies were found to reduce expected long-term costs by up to 1.8% when compared to non-adaptive, static approaches.
Key Findings:
- Adaptation pathways that incorporate learning about sea level rise uncertainty based on future observations are developed
- Adaptive adaptation pathways generate sea level rise thresholds for adaptation actions that can be similar across climate change scenarios
- Adaptive adaptation pathways can reduce expected costs compared to non-adaptive pathways by up to 1.8% in our study
This adaptive framework may represent a crucial step forward for coastal cities worldwide as they face the challenges posed by sea level rise and climate uncertainty.
Reference: Völz, V. et al. Learning about Sea Level Rise Uncertainty improves Coastal Adaptation Decisions. Earth’s Future (2024). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004704
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