The following publication « Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run” was published on The Cryosphere.
Here are the main results:
- Most of atmospheric climate models still bear significant biases on the position and intensity of the southern hemisphere westerlies winds maximum. This casts some doubts on the projected changes in position and intensity in a warming climate.
- We used run-time bias correction to correct for ARPEGE atmospheric model errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. Results show significant improvement in the representation of southern high latitudes atmospheric circulation mean state and daily variability.
- The comparison with polar-oriented regional climate models, MAR and RACMO2, and with in situ observation also suggests substantial improvement for the modelling of surface temperature and precipitation in Antarctic coastal areas.
- The application of the method for future projections (RCP8.5 scenario) yields a significant additional warming of +0.7K to +0.9K of the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected projections. Highest additional warming is found over East Antarctic in summer.
- Bias-corrected projections suggest a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low and therefore smaller increase of moist and mild air advection from the Southern Ocean towards western West Antarctica (Marie-Byrd Land), particularly in winter
- This yields lower winter-time precipitation and temperature increase over this part of West Antarctica, contrasted by a higher temperature and precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land (East Antarctica).